Insight Focus
The EIA has increased its fuel ethanol production forecasts for 2024 and 2025. However, it lowered the 2024 blending outlook. USDA’s corn use for ethanol has remained steady, with slightly higher production and lower prices expected for 2024-25.
EIA Raises Ethanol Production Forecasts
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently increased its forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. The outlook for 2024 fuel ethanol blending was revised down.
The EIA predicted fuel ethanol production will average 1.04 million barrels per day in 2024, up from the August forecast of 1.03 million barrels per day. The agency also increased its outlook for 2025 fuel ethanol production to 1.03 million barrels per day, up from the August forecast of 1.02 million barrels per day. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day in 2023.
Source: EIA
On a quarterly basis, the EIA expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.06 million barrels per day during the third quarter of this year, falling to 1.04 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Fuel Ethanol Production Projections for 2025
Moving into 2025, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.04 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.03 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.02 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.04 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol blending will average 920,000 barrels per day in 2024, down from the August forecast of 930,000 barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol blending will average 930,000 barrels per day next year. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day in 2023.
The EIA currently predicts net fuel ethanol imports will average 110,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 100,000 barrels per day in 2025. Net fuel ethanol imports were at 90,000 barrels per day in 2023.
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
USDA Maintains Corn Use Forecast
USDA’s forecast for 2024-25 corn use in ethanol at 5.45 billion bushels is unchanged from August in its latest WASDE report released on September 12. The current 2024-25 US corn outlook is for smaller supplies and modest declines in ending stocks.
Projected beginning corn stocks for 2024-25 are 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol in 2023-24. Corn production for 2024-25 is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million bushels from August on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre.
Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total US corn use is unchanged at 15 billion bushels. The predicted season-average corn price received by producers is lowered by USD 0.1 to USD 4.10/bushel.
