• Fires have been reported in several areas of CS Brazil.
  • The main cause is hot and dry weather.
  • This is bad news for the mills as the fires will reduce the cane area.

Extremely Dry Weather Causes Fires

  • CS Brazil has been going through a dry spell, with rains falling consistently below average each month.
  • Since April, its cumulative rainfall has been 36% the historical average.
  • This makes it its driest season since 2011/12.

undefined
  • Such hot and dry conditions have started fires in cane fields.
  • And according to Inmet Fire Monitor, all regions remain under maximum fire alert.

undefined

How Badly Will the Cane Be Affected?

  • In short, fire is not good for cane; young cane loses its straw blanket, which is important for cane development.
  • These means that any cane not ready to harvest must be used in the industry sooner than expected.
  • However, we are to estimate how much cane area will be lost to these fires.
  • UNICA thinks the damage in 11k hectares have been affected in Sao Paulo alone, which is around 0.2% of the total area.

undefined
  • With almost 100% of cane harvested in CS mechanized, burnt cane hinders the whole process, from field to industry.

undefined
  • Apart from some rains seen across the past two days, CS Brazil’s forecast remains dry.
  • This means the risk of further fires is prevalent.

A Closer Look at the Fires

  • Below, we have photos of some of the fires seen so far this season.
  • The first two were taken by one of our analysts in the region; the last one was sent across by a client.

undefined

Ana Zancaner

Ana graduated from Insper University Sao Paulo in 2013, with a bachelor’s degree in business administration. She joined CZ as an intern in 2013 and is now our senior analyst in our Sao Paulo office. At CZ she is responsible mainly for analysis of the Brazilian sugar and ethanol sector but supporting other consulting requests as well.

More from this author