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  • Crops in Central America have now started and should not vary much in size year-on-year (YoY).
  • Guatemala should produce 2.8m tonnes, a 0.1m tonne fall YoY as yields are slightly down.
  • We expect the region to produce 5.6m tonnes, 3.1m tonnes of which will be for export. 

As The Crop Starts, What Should We Look Out For? 

  • We do not expect the harvest to be eventful across Central America.
  • Guatemala, the largest producer in the region, has started at a steady pace, in line with historical expectations.
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  • Even though yields are slightly under-performing at this stage of the crop, this is not a significant problem yet. 
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  • However, if the yields continue to underperform, we will decrease our overall production forecasts.
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  • Any decrease in the crop will most likely impact raw sugar for bulk shipment production as bagged sugars are being more prioritised in the region. 

Bagged Sugar Preferable to Bulk Sugar

  • Guatemalan producers have been moving away from bulk sugar as shipments become harder to secure in a large surplus global market. 
  • This has led to a decrease in bulk raw sugar production and an increase in bagged sugar shipments out of the region. 
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  • With the current raw sugar surplus around the world and the crop shortfalls in North America, we believe the Centrals’ producers will prioritise bagged whites even more. 

Vincent O’Rourke

Vincent began his career at CZ in 2016 as an analyst in the London Office, focusing on raw sugar flows and the Refineries in North Africa and the Middle East. Since 2019 Vincent has moved to the Miami office, leading the Americas analysis (excluding Brazil) and implementing the new data capture and database processes. Vincent graduated from Edinburgh with a master’s in theology in 2015 and completed a Masters in Emerging Economies from King’s London University in 2016

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