• Mexico’s rainfall was poor during the key growing month of July.
  • If this continues, the cane could develop badly, as it did last year.
  • This would put Mexico’s supply and the potential for US exports under pressure.

Mexico’s Rainfall is Below Average During Key Period

  • Mexico’s rainfall was 30% below average in July.
  • This is concerning because rainfall in the summer months is critical for Mexico’s cane growth.
  • If rainfall was below average in August too, this is bad news for the cane crop as it is still recovering from the dry 2019/20 season.
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  • Up until July, Mexico’s rainfall aligned with the historic average, but about 55% of Mexico’s annual rainfall comes between July and September.
  • If Mexico’s rainfall does not improve, we will see another disappointing crop from Mexico.
  • However, if the data for August is in line with historical norms, the crop will recover.
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  • Mexico’s current sugar production forecast for 2020/21 is 6.1m tonnes, up from 5.3m tonnes last season.
  • However, without a good amount of rain in the next few months, this forecast won’t materialise.
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Vincent O’Rourke

Vincent began his career at CZ in 2016 as an analyst in the London Office, focusing on raw sugar flows and the Refineries in North Africa and the Middle East. Since 2019 Vincent has moved to the Miami office, leading the Americas analysis (excluding Brazil) and implementing the new data capture and database processes. Vincent graduated from Edinburgh with a master’s in theology in 2015 and completed a Masters in Emerging Economies from King’s London University in 2016

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