Insight Focus
We believe that China’s sugar production will see significant growth in the 2024/25 season, driven by increased beet and cane yields in key regions.
China is a sugar deficit country. Annual sugar consumption is just under 16 million tonnes and so the level of domestic sugar production determines the extent of its import dependence.
For the 2024/25 season, we expect China to produce just under 11m tonnes of sugar, a recovery of 7% over last season. Looking ahead, we could see further improvement with higher cane prices incentivizing planting for 2025/26.
2024/25: Strong Start
In early September, China was hit by Typhoon Yagi, which brought significant rainfall and impacted sugarcane cultivation in Hainan, Guangdong, and Guangxi. Despite the heavy rainfall, local industry sources reported that the damage to the fields was minimal.
As of the end of November, 13% of China’s 2024/25 expected sugar production had been completed. Sugar beet processing is about 58% complete, while sugarcane crushing, which has recently started, is currently 6% complete.
The optimistic outlook for sugar production in the 2024/25 season is largely driven by an increase in sugarcane acreage in Guangxi, along with improved field management practices supported by sugar mills.
The sugarcane campaign in Guangxi, China’s top sugar-producing province, is progressing at a notably faster pace this season. By November, sugar production had risen significantly year-on-year, supported by higher sucrose yields.
Weather has also played a supportive role in the early stages of the season. Rainfall across most southern sugarcane-growing regions, including Guangxi and parts of Yunnan, has been relatively low over the past two weeks. This has enabled faster harvesting and crushing progress.
For the 2024/25 season, we anticipate that Guangxi will harvest 52.8m tonnes of cane, which is expected to yield about 6.6m tonnes of sugar—up 400,000 tonnes from the previous season.
Looking north to China’s beet belt—Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia—we expect production to increase significantly in the new season. Together, these regions account for 14% of the country’s total sugar output.
With sugar beet acreage at record high, we believe that China is on track to produce close to 1.5m tonnes of sugar from Beet.
