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- India’s best monsoon in 25 years will not reverse the effects of the dry weather earlier this year.
- We forecast that India’s sugar production will fall by 17%, from 33m tonnes to 27.5m tonnes in the forthcoming season.
- India still continues to produce surplus sugar even with the ‘poor’ crop and stocks remain high too.
What This Means for India
India’s Total Sugar Production
- India is expected to produce 27.5m tonnes sugar production in the upcoming season.
- Despite the 17% decrease y-o-y, India will still be in surplus with its consumption at 26m tonnes.
Indian Net Sugar Production
Czarnikow’s 2019/20 India Estimates
- Maharashtra is the main reason for India’s year-on-year reduction in production.
- Dry weather seen in the first half of the year caused reservoirs to dry out, affecting cane irrigation and reducing agricultural and sucrose yields.
Sugar Production in Maharashtra
- The prolonged dry spell also affected Karnataka’s cane and we think this will cause a 20% reduction in sugar production this season.
Sugar Production in Karnataka
- Uttar Pradesh, however, is expected to create a record amount of sugar this season. Water scarcity has not been a problem as irrigation comes from the river Ganges as opposed to rainwater.
- On top of this, increased plantings of high-yielding cane varieties will help with sugar production.
Sugar Production in Uttar Pradesh
