India’s mills are exporting sugar without a subsidy.
We therefore think India will export 6.5m tonnes of sugar this season.
This is 500k tonnes higher than the subsidised volume.

India Approaches its Sugar Export Target

5.6m tonnes of Indian sugar has now been shipped (or nominated for shipment) this season.
However, its pace of exports is beginning to slow.
The mills supplied just 704k tonnes of sugar in May, down 434k tonnes month-on-month.

As the Government has removed the export subsidy for uncontracted sugar, we think there’s about 200k tonnes of subsidised sugar left to ship.
This means some mills are starting to sell raws without one.
Most of this sugar should go to India’s coastal refineries as they enjoy cheaper freight, especially with today’s high bulk rates.

So far this season, the coastal refineries have been slow to export, largely due to the global container shortage.
They’ve also faced high prices and a backwardated raw sugar curve, which makes buying raws expensive.
However, their pace should accelerate as they start to buy more Indian raws.

So far this season, the coastal refineries have been slow to export, largely due to the global container shortage.
They’ve also faced high prices and a backwardated raw sugar curve, which makes buying raws expensive.
However, their pace should accelerate as they start to buy more Indian raws.

Where’s the Raw Sugar Going?

Indonesia remains the largest buyer of Indian raws this season and has now imported 1.5m tonnes.
Iran’s yet to import any Indian sugar, as talks between the two regarding their bilateral trade agreement (oil for sugar) continue.
Last season, India exported 1.1m tonnes to Iran.

Where’s the White Sugar Going?

Afghanistan (682k tonnes), Sri Lanka (427k tonnes) and Somalia (354k tonnes) remain the top buyers of Indian white sugar.
Earlier in the season, these flows were disrupted by the container shortage, but we hope this issue is now diminishing.

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Ben Seed

Ben joined CZ’s analysis team in 2016 on a year long internship before returning to the University of Bath to complete an Economics Degree. Since re-joining in August 2018, Ben has led the data insights team in expanding the range and quality of data available internally and to clients through CZ App. Ben spent 3 months in CZ’s Singapore and Bangkok offices to expand his knowledge of the region and help roll out the latest data processes. He is now also responsible for the Sugar Market View published each week on CZ App.