• India has produced 25.5m tonnes of sugar so far this season, up 4.3m tonnes year-on-year, but down 1.2m tonnes from the record 2018/19 season.
  • This comes as India’s main sugar producing states have all started to increase diversion of cane to make ethanol.
  • We think India will produce 31.5m tonnes of sugar this season; assuming 6m tonnes exports closing stocks will be unchanged in 2021/22.

Uttar Pradesh: Sugar Production Down as Ethanol Diversion Increases 

  • Uttar Pradesh has produced 8.4m tonnes of sugar so far this season, down 300k tonnes year on year (YoY).
  • This is because it is diverting more cane towards ethanol production.
  • We think it may produce 1.3b litres of ethanol this year, up 300m litres YoY.
  • All in all, we think Uttar Pradesh will production 12m tonnes of sugar this season, down 650k tonnes from last season’s record.
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Maharashtra: Sugar Production Up, But Larger Ethanol Diversion Ahead 

  • Maharashtra has produced 9.4m tonnes of sugar so far this season, up 3.8m tonnes YoY.
  • This is because, this season, we’ve seen its cane acreage, agricultural and sucrose yields increase following a timely monsoon.
  • Also, 140 of its 188 mills are still crushing whereas, last year, just 90 of its 146 mills remained active.
  • We think Maharashtra will produce 10.5m tonnes in total, up 4.3m tonnes YoY, yet still 250k tonnes shy of the 2018/19 record.
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  • It seems unlikely that Maharashtra will top the 2018/19 record this season, as it strives to hit its 1.1b litre ethanol production target, having produced just 279m litres last season.

Karnataka: Final Four Mills Left 

  • Karnataka has produced 4.1m tonnes of sugar so far this season, down 800k tonnes YoY.
  • With just four (of 66) mills still operational, we think Karnataka will produce 4.2m tonnes of sugar in total, up 800k tonnes year-on-year, and just 100k tonnes off the 2018/19 record.
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  • Karnataka has also increased cane acreage, agricultural and sucrose yields following last year’s well-timed monsoon. 
  • However, its ethanol production must jump this year, from 206 to 379m litres, if it’s to hit its target set by the Government. 
  • This means it too will need to divert more cane and molasses towards ethanol, falling 100k tonnes short of the 4.3m tonne record set in 2018/19.  
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A Recap of Our Indian Sugar Production Estimates for 2020/21

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Monitor India’s Production Pace Using This Interactive Data Tool. 

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Here’s Another Opinion You Might Be Interested In… 

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Fiona Tan

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