- Maharashtra reservoirs levels are at their highest since 2013.
- This puts an end to dry spell worries, which started back in March.
- Excessive rains have raised concern for cane damage, as the Monsoon season draws to a close.
Rainfall Performance in Key Districts
Monsoon Rainfall in Key Sugarcane States
- Rainfall in all key cane sugar areas is within normal range, with the exceptions of Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.
- In Maharashtra, rainfall is 30% above average.
- This heavy rainfall has led to flooding in Maharashtra, with possible implications for sugar cane development.
- Below average rain in Uttar Pradesh is not a problem as there is enough water available from the River Ganges basin.
Maharashtra (Key Sugarcane Regions) – Monsoon Rainfall
- While the rainfall in Maharashtra has been heavy, it is unevenly distributed.
- The heaviest rainfall has caused floods in the west and south of the state.
- We think the impact seen in the flooded areas will be minimal, as they do not overlap with Maharashtra’s key sugarcane area.
- Solapur is still in water deficit, but this is not of concern as heavy rainfall elsewhere has replenished the reservoirs used for irrigation.
Maharashtra & Karnataka Reservoir Levels
- We expect a 40% decline in Maharashtra’s production due to the key reservoirs, which have been dry since March.
- The last time this happened was in 2016, where we saw just 4.2m tonnes of sugar being produced in Maharashtra, compared to the previous year’s 8.9m tonnes.
- Maharashtra cane acreage has reduced by 24% compared to last season: 840k hectares down from 1,100k hectares.
- On top of this, as a result of the dry spell, some sugarcane has been harvested early as cattle fodder.
- However, with reservoir levels now full, this reduces concern of a further reduction in Maharashtrian production.
Czarnikow 2019/20 India Estimates
- We forecast that Indian sugar production will fall from 33m tonnes last year to 29m tonnes in the season about to begin.
Keywords: India, Production, 19/20, Monsoon
