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• 25% of Maharashtra mills are not operating this season due to low cane availability resulting from a drought followed by monsoon floods.  
• Interestingly, despite that, Maharashtra has not shown signs of tailing off, with only 8 out of 143 mills shutting into first half of February. 
• India sugar production is on track for 26.5m tonnes; down from 33m tonnes last season.  

India Will Be Drawing Down on Stocks 

• India has produced 17m tonnes of sugar so far compared to 21.9m tonnes last year; 23% lower YoY. 
• The decline is in sugarcane producing regions Maharashtra and Karnataka  
• Drought and dry reservoirs during critical cane growth period has affected agricultural yields.

• India is likely have production-consumption surplus of 500k. 
• We think India will export 5m tonnes this season, finally drawing down stocks after two seasons of stock build. 

Maharashtra: 25% of MH Mills are not crushing this season  

• Maharashtra has produced 4.3m tonnes compared to 8.3m tonnes last year; 48% lower YoY. 
• Only 143 mills are operating compared to 191 mills this time last year. 8 mills have completed the crush for the season.  
• Due to dry weather, Maharashtra’s sugar production is estimated to be 50% lower year-on-year at 5.2m tonnes 

Uttar Pradesh: In Line with Expectations 

• Uttar Pradesh has produced 6.6m tonnes compared to 6.4m tonnes last year; 4% higher YoY. 
• This season, there has been an increase of cane acreage planted with higher yielding cane varieties. 
• Therefore, we expect Uttar Pradesh to produce a record crop of 12.7m tonnes of sugar.  

Karnataka: Dry Weather to Impact Production 

• Karnataka has produced 3.1m tonnes compared to 3.9m tonnes last year; 20% lower YoY 
• We think Karnataka will produce 3.6m tonnes of sugar this season, 16% lower YoY compared to the 4.3m tonnes last season. 
• Production is likely to fall as a result of dry weather impacting poorer agricultural and sucrose yields. 

Czarnikow’s 2019/20 India Estimates 

 Czapp’s Interactive Data Section 

To access this data in our Interactive Data section, select the tile highlighted in yellow below… 

…and you’ll be taken to the latest crop production report.