• The USDA should announce an increase in imports for 135k tonnes soon to balance 18/19 closing stocks. 
  • For next season the USDA is expecting an increased domestic crop despite floods but is also forecasting larger imports. 
  • Mexico should see their import quota increased, reducing their world market availability but also reducing the need for US imports next year. 

June WASDE Release  

  • The US will need to increase imports this season to achieve the mandated USDA stocks to use ratio of 13.5%. 
  • Now that the Mexico Tariff threat has been averted, they are likely to receive a quota increase (maybe 140kmt). 
  • An increase in US quota will reduce the need for Mexican world market exports this season.  

US Sugar Beet Planted Acreage  

  • Looking at 19/20, the USDA have increased the expected Mexican quota allocation, but this number is likely to reduce. 
  • This is because any increase in imports this season will reduce need for imports next season. 
  • Despite fears of slower plantings due to heavy rains in the American Midwest, US Plantings for 19/20 have been good.  
  • The beet crop is expected to be the third highest in the last 15 years.  

Vincent O’Rourke

Vincent began his career at CZ in 2016 as an analyst in the London Office, focusing on raw sugar flows and the Refineries in North Africa and the Middle East. Since 2019 Vincent has moved to the Miami office, leading the Americas analysis (excluding Brazil) and implementing the new data capture and database processes. Vincent graduated from Edinburgh with a master’s in theology in 2015 and completed a Masters in Emerging Economies from King’s London University in 2016

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