Insight Focus
The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics forecasts 2023/24 corn harvest at 47.5 million tonnes. This is much better than first expected. The state is now preparing for soybean plantings; we expect record production.
Key Component for Brazilian Production
Mato Grosso is huge. Its area is approximately 903,360 km² — 6.2x larger than Iowa, 1.5x larger than Ukraine, and 1.76x larger than the Chinese provinces of Henan, Shandong and Hebei combined (the three largest corn producing states in the country).
The state is a national leader in the production and export of soybeans, corn, cotton and beef.
Crop Calendar
Unlike other Brazilian regions, Mato Grosso does not participate in the 1st corn crop, concentrating all its potential in the so-called safrinha crop (2nd crop). Cotton is the main direct competitor for the area.
A severe drought at the end of 2023, when soybean planting finished, caused replanting in many regions and even substitution by faster-cycle cotton to avoid delaying the 2nd corn crop afterward. This raised doubts about the region’s potential this year. However, productivity was surprising, and the pace of work even more so, resulting in a historic harvest pace.
On August 5, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) increased its production forecast from 47.3 to 47.5 million tonnes. The improvement resulted from an increase in the yield estimate from 113.53 bags to 114.04 bags (60 kg bag) per hectare, planted in an area of 6.94 million hectares.
The New Soybean Crop
For the 24/25 soybean crop, which starts next month, IMEA projects an area of 12.66 million hectares, which should result in a record production of 44.04 million tonnes. Already, the USDA forecasts all-Brazil production at an unprecedented 169m tonnes.
The first official numbers from CONAB (official Brazilian agricultural agency) for the 24/25 grains crops should be released at the traditional event held in the second half of September, Perspectives for Brazilian Agriculture.
