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  • The US market will be very reliant on the Mexican crop to cover their domestic production shortfall.
  • The crop is just starting but early yield results could alleviate short term supply fears in the USA.
  • All the Mexican Crop Data is now available for you in our Interactive Data section.

Production Estimate Range: 5.6 to 6.1m tonnes

  • Our Mexican crop model is now available for anyone to see and interact with here!
  • The range of production estimates have varied. We are currently modelling a 6.1m tonne crop, but the local cane industry is predicting a crop of 5.8m tonnes.
  • We have also heard that some are predicting a 5.6m tonne crop.
  • The crop has only fallen below 6m tonnes once in the last five seasons; this happened in 2017.
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  • So far, the crop is slightly behind the usual pace, but it is still very early in the season.
  • Very little cane has been crushed so far and so it is not surprising to see the sugar volume behind the norm.
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  • Very few mills are yet in operation, only 15 have started harvesting so far.
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  • Cane volume is expected to fall this season as the summer drought takes its toll on cane weight.
  • The official domestic forecast expects 51m tonnes of cane to be crushed (1m tonnes less than in 2017, the previous low).
  • Agricultural yield returns (tonnes of cane per hectare) will be followed closely to see if the damage to the cane is as dramatic as forecast.

Yields Under the Microscope – Good Start

  • So far, yields have been good, but again, it is just the start of the season.
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  • Agricultural yields have outperformed the historical averages. If they continue to perform well, the market will be forced to reconsider the low production estimates.
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  • Consistently good yields will allow for concerns over the supply of sugar in the US and Mexican market to dissipate.
  • This should help prices return to more usual levels.
  • Keep updated on the Mexican crop in our Interactive Data Section.

Vincent O’Rourke

Vincent began his career at CZ in 2016 as an analyst in the London Office, focusing on raw sugar flows and the Refineries in North Africa and the Middle East. Since 2019 Vincent has moved to the Miami office, leading the Americas analysis (excluding Brazil) and implementing the new data capture and database processes. Vincent graduated from Edinburgh with a master’s in theology in 2015 and completed a Masters in Emerging Economies from King’s London University in 2016

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