• Mexican sugar production should be below average again this season.
  • Last season’s drought has continued to hinder cane development.
  • We think Mexico will aim to ship its full US quota, leaving little room for further world market exports.

Mexican Sugar Production Hit by Drought

  • Mexico has produced 5.6m tonnes of sugar so far this season, down 500k tonnes from our earlier forecast.
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  • We think it’ll produce 5.7m tonnes of sugar in total, up 450k tonnes from the drought-affected 2019/20, but still below average.
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  • The impact of the 2019/20 drought rolled into this year and reduced the country’s cane supply.
    • Cane reproduces by itself, meaning it doesn’t have to be planted each season.
  • As such, this season’s crush flattened earlier than usual.
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How Will This Impact Mexican Trade Flows?

  • We think Mexico will export almost 1.15m tonnes of sugar this season, down 370k tonnes year-on-year.
  • We’ve already seen 895k tonnes go to the US and the world market.
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  • With low production and stable domestic prices, Mexico will likely focus on satisfying domestic demand and shipping its full US quota (880k tonnes), as both pay better than world market exports.
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  • If it fills its US quota, they’ll be little room for further world market exports.
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  • As it stands, Mexico’s shipped 247k tonnes of sugar to the world market.
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  • We don’t think there’ll be any more significant exports from Mexico to the world market this season due to its lower availability.
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Stephanie Rodriguez

Stephanie graduated from Babson College in 2020, with a bachelor’s degree in Operations Management and Data Analytics. She joined CZ in 2020 for a one year internship where she focused on developing dashboards, content and expanding our network in the Americas (excluding Brazil). Stephanie is responsible for writing content and capturing data for the Americas (excluding Brazil), presenting our market view to clients, and working on different consultancy projects.

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