- Mexico’s been battling drought for the past two seasons.
- The situation may be no different in 2021/22.
- We think it will produce 5.9m tonnes of sugar, down 200k tonnes from 2018/19.
Below Average Sugar Production in 2021/22?
- Mexico hoped to produce 6.1m tonnes of sugar next season, up 835k tonnes from the drought-hit 2019/20.
- However, drought is still causing problems, meaning it should produce 5.9m tonnes.
- This is up 200k tonnes year-on-year but below what was achieved before to its recent drought issues commenced in 2019/20.
Drought Issues Persist for Mexico
- Since the end of March, it’s been hot and dry in Mexico, with 71.5% of the country suffering from drought.
- In Veracruz, Mexico’s main sugar-producing region, temperatures have climbed to 35°C and could hit 40°C.
- Rainfall was also low in February and March, as was the case in 2019 and 2020.
What Does This Mean for Cane Yields?
- As the weather’s been very similar to that of 2020/21, cane yields should be too.
- Due to limited access to water, the cane should struggle to grow and mean less is harvested per hectare.
- If there was lots of sun between January and June, and then plenty of rain between July and September, the cane may have recovered.
- This wasn’t the case though, so agricultural (cane) yields should average 70 mt/ha.
What About Sugar Yields?
- Fortunately, dry weather (even drought) usually improves canes’ sucrose content.
- This wasn’t the case in 2019/20, however, as the drought was so severe.
- It was the case in 2020/21 though, so we hope to see similar sucrose yields in the upcoming season.
Other Opinions You May Be Interested In…
- Mexico 2019/20 Overview: The Good, The Bad, and The Drought
- Mexico: Poor Sugar Production Following 2019/20 Drought
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