Insight Focus
Australia has lifted anti-dumping duties on Thai pineapples. Still, a sharp drop in 2024 due to drought has pushed up Thai pineapple prices significantly. Thailand’s pineapple production is expected to recover slightly going forward, with output forecasted between 800,000 to 1 million tonnes this year.
Australia has decided to end its investigation into anti-dumping (AD) duties and will no longer impose these tariffs on pineapple products from Thailand, after deciding that these products do not negatively impact domestic producers in Australia.
The investigation concluded that competition in the Australian market was not affected by Thai dumping. Instead, it found that imports from Indonesia and other countries, as well as more efficient distribution by competitors, were the main factors driving market dynamics.
Recent policy changes have led to an increase in Australia’s pineapple supply from Thailand. While this shift seems beneficial for Thai exporters, who will no longer have to worry about AD duties when exporting pineapples to Australia in 2025, they face a significant challenge.
As of 2024, Thailand has been experiencing a pineapple shortage, which could limit its ability to meet the growing demand in the Australian market in 2025.
Thai Pineapple Production Reaches 10 Year Low
According to the Department of Agricultural Extension, Thailand’s pineapple production in 2023 was approximately 1.26 million tonnes, marking the lowest output in over a decade.
The situation worsened further in 2024, with production plummeting to around 700,000 tonnes. The sharp decrease in output is primarily due to the adverse effects of drought, especially caused by the El Niño phenomenon.
The 2025 crop may also be impacted by lower rainfall, as rainfall during Q3 2024, which is crucial for pineapple development for the following season, was insufficient.
High Prices Drive Up Yields
The production shortage in 2024 is expected to drive up pineapple prices in Thailand this year. We have heard that in some areas, the farm gate price of pineapple may reach as high as THB 16/kg.
*forecast
Despite challenges, our forecast for 2025 production ranges from 800,000 to 1 million tonnes, an increase from 2024. This growth is driven by price incentives and limited planting area, which are encouraging farmers to focus on improving yield quality.
Additionally, the Thai Meteorological Department, in collaboration with Dr. Thorn, interviewed a marine scientist from Kasetsart University, who forecasted increased rainfall in Thailand as a result of a mild La Niña.
This weather phenomenon is expected to bring cooler temperatures and more frequent rain from mid-February through the third quarter of the year, potentially boosting crop yields this year and having a positive knock on effect on the next crop.
