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  • Just before the end of operations, CS exceeded 500 mmt of processed sugarcane – putting behind the fear that the region could crush below this number, as some houses had suggested.
  • This resulted in a total of 31.2 mm of sugar and 25 billion of ethanol (from sugarcane) produced.
  • So far, 123 mills have completed their harvest

Crop 2021/22 – 2H October 

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Ethanol Paying More 

  • Looking at spot parity, today the favored one is ethanol with more than 50pts of advantage over sugar.
  • But we are already at the end of the harvest, and changes in the mix now do not have a big impact on the total sugar produced in this crop.
  • In any case, this biofuel advantage may have influenced mills, especially in border states with uncommitted volume to allocate more sugarcane for ethanol production.

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  • Consequently, the sugar mix came lower than expected in 37%.
  • Another interesting fact from the last fortnights is the greater allocation for anhydrous production – used in the gasoline blend.
  • The concern with stocks and availability of pr oduct for the off-season led producers to prioritize anhydrous ethanol.

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  • Production until the 2H of October totaled 10 billion liters – considering volumes of anhydrous ethanol from sugarcane and corn.

Harvest exceeded 500 mm tons 

  • The volume of cane processed at the end of October was 17 mtc – higher than expected given the heavy rainfall recorded in the last fortnight.
  • However, it was still 37% lower than the same fortnight of 2020.

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  • As a result, CS reached a cumulative crush of 504,413 mtc – 11% less than last year
  • As we already know, the lower volume processed is a result of low agricultural productivity:
  • According to UNICA, data from a sample of 64 mills for this fortnight point to a drop in productivity of 11% year on year:
    • 55.4 mtc/ha against 62.4 mtc/ha

Ethanol market – anhydrous continues with the preference 

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  • Since May, hydrous ethanol has had the worst competitiveness (parity at the pump) on record.
  • Consistently above 75%, some of the demand shifted to gasoline.
  • And with 27% mandatory blending, it resulted in greater demand for anhydrous ethanol.
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  • As a result, sales have continued at a strong pace in recent months:
    • In October, 842.7 million liters of anhydrous were sold – 5.3% more compared to 20/21.
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Catarina Junqueira

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