• The US Government thinks American sugar consumption has been falling on a per capita basis since 2016.
  • American sugar production is still forecast to be close to record levels.
  • This means US sugar stocks in September 2020 will be above the government’s 13.5% target, which may mean Mexico cannot export as much sugar to the US as first expected.

October WASDE Release

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  • · Slow growth in total consumption has been led by a decrease in per capita consumption.

US Per Capita Sugar Consumption

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  • Further decreases in consumption will reduce the need for imports into the US market.
  • This can be seen by the USDA’s expectation for closing sugar stocks in September 2020, now at 14.5% versus their target of 13.5%.
  • Mexico could lose some market access as a result.

Weather in US Midwest Turning Sour

  • After decreasing the beet crop outlook in September, the USDA has now re-increased their estimate.
  • This may well change once again as the central US states expect snow storms in the coming days.
  • South Dakota is currently in a state of alert due to expected snow storms.
  • Two feet of snow could fall in the Rockies and Northern Plains, two major sugar beet growing areas.
  • This could delay the start of the beet crop, whilst severe cold could damage the beet still in the ground.
  • The US beet crop could once again fall once the effect of the storms becomes clearer.
  • The current forecast is 5.055 mstrv.

Vincent O’Rourke

Vincent began his career at CZ in 2016 as an analyst in the London Office, focusing on raw sugar flows and the Refineries in North Africa and the Middle East. Since 2019 Vincent has moved to the Miami office, leading the Americas analysis (excluding Brazil) and implementing the new data capture and database processes. Vincent graduated from Edinburgh with a master’s in theology in 2015 and completed a Masters in Emerging Economies from King’s London University in 2016

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