Insight Focus

  • PTA has rallied over the last week, although margins remain low.
  • PET resin export prices have followed feedstock costs lower, supported by low inventory.
  • The raw material forward curve remains flat, slightly backwardated over the next 12 months.

  


PTA Futures and Forward Curve

  • PTA futures were driven higher last week, outstripping the recovery of crude.
  • Recent production cuts, improved logistics, and higher polyester operating rates are key drivers.
  • However, PTA supply is expected to grow in May as maintenance ends, keeping margins low.
  • The PTA 12-month forward curve remains backwardated, with future months trading at a discount to the current May contract.
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MEG Futures and Forward Curve

  • MEG futures are down across the board on the week, despite a sharp rise in recent days.
  • General oversupply and high port inventory for MEG is still limiting any upside, with demand sluggish.
  • MEG forward curve remains in contango with future contracts, trading at a premium to current levels.
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PET Resin Export – Raw Material Spread and Forward Curve

  • Export prices for Chinese PET resin have weakened slightly from 1,215 USD/tonne to 1,200 USD/tonne.
  • However, the physical differential ended the week relatively flat at 144 USD/tonne.
  • The PET export-raw material forward curve remains flat, slightly backwardated over the next 12 months.
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Concluding Thoughts

  • Chinese PET Resin FOB values continue to trade mostly sideways, as they have through April.
  • The physical differential for PET exports remains supported by over-sales and low inventory.
  • Easing of logistics in China may result in a short-term pick-up in export demand, with Latin America buyers still facing supply constraints.
  • Whilst export demand remains strong, the escalation of COVID restrictions in Beijing, and with Shanghai still in lockdown, PET resin producers are expected to see domestic sales come under increased pressure.

For PET hedging enquiries, please contact the risk management desk at MKirby@czarnikow.com.

For research and analysis questions, please get in touch with GLamb@czarnikow.com.

Other Insights That May Be of Interest…

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PET Resin Trade Flows: China’s COVID Response Slows Exports

Chinese PET Industry Faces Biggest COVID Outbreak Since 2020

European PET Market Rocked by War in Ukraine


Explainers That May Be of Interest…

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Gareth Lamb

Gareth joined CZ in 2021 and is CZ’s PET analyst and recycling specialist. As well as regularly reporting on key market trends and dynamics, Gareth is also developing new research products and analytics within the PET and rPET space. Prior to joining CZ, Gareth led Wood Mackenzie’s PET research service and was Senior Consultant at IHS Markit, working within the petrochemical consulting team. Dr. Lamb graduated from the University of St Andrews with a PhD in organometallic chemistry; and has a masters of Chemistry degree from the University of Liverpool.

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