Insight Focus
- Both raw and refined sugar futures strengthened over the last week.
- No.11 and No.5 forward curves remain inverted.
- H/H sugar white premiums have strengthened now close to 100USD/mt.
New York No.11 (Raw Sugar)
No.11 futures rallied again over last week, closing at 21.45c/lb by Friday.
Due to the ongoing cyber-related incident impacting CFTC, we have no visibility on the Commitment of Traders. Once data is available, we will comment.
The recent market strength above the 18-20c/lb range pressures raw sugar consumers to return to hand-to-mouth buying. On the contrary, raw sugar producers should be able to capitalise on higher prices.
The No.11 forward curve remains inverted; the H/K’23 spread has strengthened significantly; it traded as high as 164 points before dropping back slightly.
London No.5 (Refined)
No.5 refined sugar futures also strengthened toward the end of last week, closing at 572USD/mt by Friday. With the March’23 contract expiring today, some of the positions have rolled into May’23.
The No.5 forward curve nearby contract is inverted again, remaining backwardated into 2024.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The H/H sugar white premium recovered, now standing close to 100USD/mt.
We think re-exports refiners need around 115-125USD/mt above the No.11 to profitably produce refined sugar which hasn’t been the norm throughout the H/H period, therefore physical values are necessary to bridge this gap.
The K/K and Q/N white premiums are stronger, with both trading above 120USD/mt.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
