Insight Focus
Raw sugar futures have continued to trade between 19-20c/lb. Commercial participants closed a significant number of hedges. Speculators remain short the market.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
The raw sugar futures market continued to trade between 19-20c/lb, closing at 19.3c/lb on Friday.
Looking at the commercial participants, both producers and end-users have closed a significant number of hedges, with producers closing out 23.9k lots of short positions and consumers closing out 21.7k lots of long positions.
Speculators are still short the market, but at least have stopped adding meaningfully to their short. They remain net short in the sugar market by 47k lots.
The No.11 futures curve remains flat for much of 2024 and is then gently backwardated to 2027.
London No.5 Refined Sugar Futures
The No.5 refined sugar futures traded at 585.7USD/mt on Monday before it weakened slightly by the end of the week, closing at 569.3USD/mt on Friday.
Speculators have added a similar number of positions as last week, adding 5.8k lots of new longs. The net spec position is now at 25.6k lots. This is the second highest net spec position we have seen so far this year.
The refined sugar futures curve has flattened quite a bit in the past week, with the curve remaining in backwardation through to Dec’24.
No.5 Open Interest
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The Q/N white premium traded sideways at 143.8USD/mt over the past week.
Many re-exports refiners need around 105-115USD/mt above the No.11 to profitably produce refined sugar.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.11 Spreads
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
No.5 Spreads
White Premium Appendix
