Insight Focus
- Net commercial and spec positions very similar to the last update despite upwards price movement.
- Speculators close both long and short positions amid lack of clear price direction.
- Raw sugar consumers and producers both took advantage of opportunities to add hedges.
New York No.11 (Raw Sugar)
- No.11 prices have recovered back above 18.5c/lb over the last week of trading.
- By the 9th of August producers added new sugar hedges faster than old ones rolled off for the first time in several weeks with over 10k new short positions added.
- Raw sugar consumers also furthered their hedging regime, adding over 12k lots of long positions.
- The net spec position remains broadly unchanged as speculators remove almost equal volumes of long and short positions – speculators are still net sellers of raw sugar.
- The No.11 forward curve has flattened into Mar’23, falling into backwardation for the rest of 2023.
London No.5 (White Sugar)
- No.5 prices have strengthened towards 560USD/mt over the last week, returning the market to the uptrend channel.
- By the 9th of August the net spec position has risen by 3.5k lots to over 28k lots, reversing the previous two weeks move towards neutrality
- The No.5 forward curve remains heavily backwardated into 2024, with spreads to May’23 each the widest in at least the last 5 years.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
- The sugar white premium has hovered around 150USD/mt as both the No.11 and No.5 recover.
- At this level we should see re-export refiners operating profitably and maximising their throughput.
- We think discretionary refiners will need upwards of 160USD/mt to start buying extra raws cargoes for re-export.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the data appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
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