Insight Focus
- Raw sugar futures have strengthened slightly in the past week.
- The net spec position is now lowest since Oct’22.
- The H/H white premium has strengthened, now standing at 150USD/mt.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
The No.11 raw sugar futures strengthened slightly in the past week, breaking way from its sideways range, and currently trading at 22.3c/Ib.
That said, the current futures market is now very unbalanced.
Speculators, after heavily liquidating their long positions in over the past few weeks, have further reduced their long positions by 6.7k lots in the past weeks.
With the addition of a few short positions, the net spec position is now the lowest it has been since October 2022.
Turning our attention to the commercial participants, they have also been closing out a number of positions.
The No.11 forward curves have remained relatively unchanged since our last update, with the market remaining broadly flat in 2024 before becoming mildly backwardated in 2025.
London No.5 Refined Sugar Futures
Looking over the No.5 refined sugar futures, prices have strengthened slightly in the past week, trading at 626USD/mt.
That said, speculators of refined sugar have chosen to extend their long position by 1.5k lots, bringing the overall net spec position back up to 10k lots.
The refined sugar futures continues toremains backwardated through to Aug’25.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The H/H sugar white premium strengthened in the past week, closing at 150USD/mt last Friday.
That said, we think re-exports refiners need around 100-115USD/mt above the No.11 to profitably produce refined sugar, therefore physical values should still be necessary to bridge this gap.
The refined sugar market is a undersupplied for the majority of 2024 and this is reflected in comparatively strong K/K and Q/N white premiums which are both pushing toward 145USD/mt.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
