Insight Focus
- No.11 prices have retreated towards 19 c/lb.
- Both raw sugar producers and consumers have trimmed their positions.
- White sugar speculators continue to add to their long position.
New York No.11 (Raw Sugar)
- Raw sugar prices have fallen below 20 c/lb, closing as low as 19.2 c/lb by the end of last week.
- This may put some of the newest longs (built above 19.5c) under pressure.
- Commercial open interest has also fallen by around 46k lots as both producers and consumers close out or roll positions ahead of the K’22 expiry.
- The No.11 forward curve is becoming gradually in contango towards H’23.
London No.5 (White Sugar)
- After climbing as high as 577 USD/tonne, the No.5 retreated back below 540 USD/tonne by the close of last week (this is yet to be reflected in the CFTC data).
- As of the 19th April, the white sugar net spec position grew slightly to over 29k lots.
- White sugar prices have fallen all down the board, leaving the futures curve similarly backwardated across 2022 and 2023.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
- The white premium remains stable around 105 USD/tonne.
- We think some re-export refiners may struggle to operate profitably at this level.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the data appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
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