Insight Focus
Raw sugar futures traded higher between 19-20c/lb. Producers took advantage of the price strength. Speculators closed out many short positions and remain net short in the market.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
The raw sugar futures market traded higher last week between 19-20c/lb, closing at 19.4c/lb on Friday.
News of fires in Brazil likely kickstarted the increase in prices. Some Brazilian sugar producers are likely to have bought back futures positions as a result. We also suspect a large buyer has emerged in the market in recent days given the severity of the price move and the rise in volume. This may have been Chinese refiners locking in physical sugar or it might have been a trade house becoming more bullish.
Producers have clearly taken advantage of the price strength as they opened a significant number of positions at 51,700 lots of short positions.
End-users opened a smaller number of positions, opening just under 7,000 lots of long positions.
By contrast, speculators have closed out many short positions since last week, closing out 36,900 lots of shorts. They have further opened a minimal number of long positions at just under 3,000 lots of longs.
Speculators are now net-short in the sugar market by -31,120 lots.
The No.11 futures curve has moved up at the front of the curve and has weakened from May’26. Nonetheless, the curve remains in backwardation from March’25 onwards.
London No.5 Refined Sugar Futures
The No.5 refined sugar futures also traded higher between USD 525-557.5/tonne over the past week, closing at USD 546.8/tonne on Friday.
Speculators opened 4.200 lots of longs bringing the net spec position up to 16,400 lots.
No.5 Open Interest
The No.5 refined sugar futures curve has strengthened across the board.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The V/V white premium, traded between USD 105-120/tonne, closing at USD 119.5/tonne on Friday.
Many re-export refiners need around USD 105-115/tonne above the No.11 to profitably produce refined sugar. The current white premium is just above this level.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
