Insight Focus
- Global production in 2021/22 is rounding off to become second highest on record.
- This should help deliver a large surplus heading into 2023.
- Production in Ukraine next year could be less disrupted than previously thought.
Increased Production in Key Regions
We currently forecast production to reach over 179m tonnes of sugar in 2021/22. This has been fuelled by a record crop in India and helped by strong year-on-year increases in Thailand and Pakistan. Only in 2017/18 did the world produce more sugar than this year.
Whilst the India crop is near finished now, there is still more room for upside as crushing continues.
Global Sugar Consumption Following the Trend
We still think the world will consume 173.6m tonnes of sugar in 2021/22. This follows the trend of gradual increase year-on-year as the world population increases and consumption in developing nations become more westernised.
Wide Production Surplus to Finish 2021/22
The world will produce almost 6m tonnes more sugar in 2021/22 than it consumes, the widest since the record breaking 2017/18 crop.
As our attention starts to move towards the 2022/23 crop it is worth noting that we now forecast a small surplus forming. After a strong crop in Pakistan this year, we have increased our crop forecast for 2022/23 by 800k tonnes.
Regional Production 2021/22
Regional Updates
Fears over the 2022/23 sugar crop in Ukraine have been alleviated slightly with the news that sowing is being carried in almost all sugar regions in the country. Only in Luhansk where active conflict is currently taking place has there been no recorded sowing.
Over 180k hectares have been sowed so far, with around 200k forecast. This is down from the 225k hectares in 2021.
Whilst there is still a long way to go before harvest with very high uncertainty as to how the war will play out before then, we have tentatively increased our production forecast by 200k tonnes to 1.2m in 2022/23.
This is still a decreased of 200k tonnes compared to this year’s crop.
If you have any questions, please get in touch with us at Will@czapp.com
Other Insights That May Be of Interest…
Sugar Statshot: Behind the Data
Sugar Statshot: Surplus Shrinks Despite Strong Indian Production
Explainers That May Be of Interest…
The Sugar Industry in Maharashtra and Karnataka
