Insight Focus
Our global production forecast has dropped further following the disappointing sugar mix and cane crush in CS Brazil. EU production is up by 1.3 million tonnes from the 2023/24 season.
2024/25 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
We think that global sugar production will hit 184.3 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season.
This is the second highest sugar production on record. However, since our last report, we have revised our production forecast for Centre-South Brazil, the world’s largest cane region. This comes after poor cane crushing progress and disappointing sugar mix.
Fires have also broken out across the region over the past few weeks. CS Brazil has already had a very dry rainy season and fires could affect cane productivity further. We have downgraded our sugar production forecast to 39.3 million tonnes from above 40 million tonnes as a preliminary measure.
We have increased our forecast for sucrose diversion to ethanol in India, following the government’s decision to ease ethanol feedstock restrictions. This means that of the 37 million tonnes of sucrose we think will be produced from cane, 4.5 million tonnes will be diverted to ethanol production rather than sugar production.
Global Sugar Consumption
We forecast that global consumption will reach 179.8m tonnes in the 2024/25 season. This is down slightly by 0.2 million tonnes.
Production Surplus in 2024/25
Following these revisions, our global production surplus estimate is now at 4.5 million tonnes for the 2024/25 season, down by 1.4 million tonnes from our previous update.
This means that global sugar stocks are still building from their low point in the early 2020s. However, the build of stocks is not proceeding as quickly as we’d previously hoped, and much of the stock build remains at origin in Brazil and India, and not where it’s most needed.
Production Update: EU-27+UK
We forecast that the combined production for the EU-27 and the UK is set to reach 18.2 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season. This is up by 1.4 million tonnes from the 2023/24 season.
The increase in production comes after higher sugar content in the beet across Europe, leading to higher yields, thus an increase in production.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
