Insight Focus
2024/25 global sugar production will be the highest on record. This is thanks to increased output from the EU, Thailand and India. Global production surplus in 2024/25 will be the highest since the 2017/18 season.
2024/25 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
We expect global sugar production to reach 189.7m tonnes in 2024/25, up by 3.2m tonnes from our previous estimate. This will be the highest production level on record exceeding the 2017/18 season.
The increase in production in 2024/25 may come as a surprise. After all, most reports coming from the world’s largest sugar producer, Centre-South Brazil are of dry weather and worse-than-hoped cane performance. But we believe that cane acreage there is much higher than many other observers believe and so haven’t marked sugar output heavily lower this season. Next season may well be adversely affected if the weather remains dry.
Elsewhere, we expect strong production in India and other smaller sugar producers in the Central America region.
Global Sugar Consumption
Global sugar consumption is rising alongside population growth. We think it will exceed 180m tonnes in the 2024/25 season.
Large Production Surplus in 2024/25
Rebounds in EU and Thai sugar production as well as a potential increased output from India could result in the largest sugar surplus we have seen since the 2017/18 season at 8.8m tonnes.
Production Update: India
In the 2024/25 season we expect India to produce 33.7m tonnes of sugar. This would be a 2.2m tonne increase from the previous season.
Monsoon rains have arrived ahead of schedule in India, bringing normal levels of rainfall. Reservoir levels have improved in major cane-growing regions like Maharashtra and Karnataka thanks to the monsoon rains. Therefore, we could see better yields next season potentially leading to an increased output.
We also do not believe there has been a large decline in cane area this season as many had feared. This is because last year’s rainfall was not as poor as initial reports suggested. Cane remains the best-paying crop for farmers.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
