Insight Focus
We think that northern hemisphere cane crops could recover in 2025/26. We forecast a global production surplus of 9.3m tonnes. If all goes well, 2025/26 sugar production could be the highest on record.
2025/26 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
Our estimate for global sugar production currently stands at 188.8m tonnes in 2025/26. This is close to the level reached in 2017/18, which has not yet been exceeded since.
Obviously, for the world to hit record sugar production we need cane and beet regions to have excellent weather conditions. This is particularly the case following disappointing conditions in major northern hemisphere cane producers like India, Thailand, Mexico and China in 2024/25.
Already we have concerns over the amount of rainfall cane has received in February and March in Centre-south Brazil, the world’s largest cane region. It is therefore possible that our production forecast for the season diminishes in the future if the weather disappoints. But it’s clear to see the intent of sugar growers around the world.
Global Sugar Consumption
Our forecast for global consumption is down slightly from 2024/25 at 179.4m tonnes.
We are concerned that the emergence of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs like Ozempic and Zepbound will undermine sugar consumption globally. In 2025 and 2026 this is likely to occur only in the world’s wealthiest countries, where some consumers can afford these drugs.
However, semaglutide (Ozempic) comes off patent in many countries in 2026. At this point, drug manufacturers will be able to release cheaper biosimilars, increasing availability. This should lead to greater uptake in other less-wealthy countries too.
To account for these drugs, we have factored in a gradual decline in sugar consumption for the USA from 2024, extending to most G20 countries in 2025 and 2026.
Production Surplus in 2025/26
2024/25 now shows a small global sugar production deficit of 2.9m tonnes, almost eradicating the sugar stock gains of the previous year. However, we forecast a production surplus of 9.3m tonnes in 2025/26; the second highest production surplus in the last 10 years.
This surplus should start to be felt in the sugar market from the onset of large-scale exports from the 2025/26 CS Brazilian cane harvest, in May or June 2025.
Production Update: CS Brazil
We estimate that CS Brazil will have its second highest sugar output on record, at 42m tonnes in the 2025/26 season.
Despite last season’s droughts and fires slightly reducing cane area, agricultural yields should compensate for the shortfall. Rainfall was normal from October to December, though we are monitoring the effects of dry weather in February and March.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
