Insight Focus
Our global production forecast has increased slightly to 184.7m tonnes following a sugar production recovery in Colombia. Our estimate for the global production surplus has also increased to 4.7m tonnes. We further think that Mexican sugar production will recover in the 2024/25 season.
2024/25 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
We estimate that global sugar production will hit 184.7m tonnes in the 2024/25 season. This is a 0.4m tonnes increase since our last report.
The slight increase in our global production forecast comes after revisions made to our estimate for Colombia, where we expect sugar production to recover this coming season. We have further adjusted our forecasts up in some of the smaller sugar producing nations.
Global Sugar Consumption
Our forecast for global consumption has also risen slightly and now stands at 180m tonnes for the 2024/25 season.
Production Surplus in 2024/25
Our estimate for the global production surplus is also up. We now forecast that the global production surplus stands at 4.7m tonnes for the 2024/25 season.
Global sugar stocks are still building from their low point in the early 2020s. However, the build of stocks is not proceeding as quickly as we’d previously hoped, and much of the stock build remains at origin in Brazil and India, and not where it’s most needed.
Production Update: Mexico
Mexico has experienced two years of drought, and we think that the Mexican cane crop will finally recover in the 2024/25 season. We estimate that Mexico will produce 5m tonnes of sugar in the coming season.
With a recovery in the crop, we also think that Mexico will import less refined sugar year-on-year and exports to the US should also increase.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
