Insight Focus
Our forecast for global production is down by 3.5m tonnes since our last update. Our estimate for global consumption is also down. We think that GLP-1 drugs will have an effect on sugar consumption growth in the coming years.
2024/25 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
Since our last report, our estimate for global sugar production has been reduced by 3.5m tonnes. We now forecast that global sugar production will hit 181.1m tonnes in the 2024/25 season.
The decline in production mainly come from adjustments made to our production forecast for Thailand and India.
Global Sugar Consumption
Our estimate for global consumption is also down by 0.8m tonnes, as we estimate global consumption to be at 179.5m tonnes of sugar in 2024/25.
Production Surplus in 2024/25
Our forecast for the global production surplus is down by 2.7m tonnes and now stands at 1.6m tonnes for the 2024/25 season.
Consumption Growth: GLP-1 Drugs
We have grave concerns over sugar consumption growth. Sugar consumption is extremely hard to analyse and we think most observers in the market are missing a new trend: GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Zepbound.
Our analysis suggests some countries could ultimately see a 5% loss in sugar consumption as a result of GLP-1 drugs becoming mainstream. We’re tapering in a decline in sugar consumption from 2024, starting in the USA, then extending to most G20 countries in 2025 and 2026.
For more information on how GLP-1 drugs are affecting sugar consumption, check out our webinar below.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
