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ICE BRENT CRUDE OIL SPOT
Brent missed the 78’s this week and has since fallen back to the lower Bollinger band (71.8) again. If that band remained resilient, so those 78’s would still need watching as the stage one escape hatch towards ultimately building a much bigger base. Alas, if pressed on through 70, base hopes would fizzle and a Fib retracement to 63 would threaten.
NYMEX NATURAL GAS 2ND CONTINUATION
The latest swell in Nat Gas came up a whisker shy of the 2.815 May apex and the market is struggling to slot back into forward gears. If it could yet pop 2.815, a broad saucer base would be implied and there is only piecemeal obstruction across the 3’s and 4’s. Watch the mid band (2.463) meantime as a trapdoor back down to the 2.20 area.
COMEX GOLD 2ND CONTINUATION
Gold has shed ground in Jun after breaking its uptrend but losses have been tentative and Friday saw an outside day. This seems to contest the decay but will still demand defeat of the mid band (1956) to reassure and turn sights onto the dual top again, 1991 the pivotal release. If blunted shy of the mid band, stay wary of open space down to 1809.
LME COPPER 3-MONTHS
A caution light in Copper as the months’ upswing has just completed a Fib retracement of the prior Apr-May decline by hitting 8680 and has then flinched as the upper Bollinger applies restraint (8695). This diverts focus onto the mid band (8379). If it can gather the stumble, another try higher could follow. If not, beware dropping away to the high 7K’s again.
CBOT SOYBEANS 2ND CONTINUATION
An impressive Jun rebound for Beans but only lately has it nibbled into the daily H&S over 1390 and the far larger weekly H&S neckline isn’t until 1475. Much more wary of this generally being ‘failure’ terrain then that could trip a whole new dive to 1200 and even deeper. Only hacking across the entire 1455-1500 span would suggest staying the course.
CBOT CORN 2ND CONTINUATION
Like Beans, a similarly hefty gap fill rebound in Jun for Corn but it has neared key weekly H&S border resistance (636/646) and is thus already showing signs of distress. Watch 570 and then the mid band (550) as subsequent tripwires back down, potentially gouging on to the 440’s. Only a clean vault of 636-646 would mark a substantive new step north.
NY SUGAR #11 SPOT CONTINUATION
Blocked by the upper Bollinger in the mid 26’s, Sugar has twisted back under its mid band to attack the prior 24.23 trough. A clean break would build Q2 into a heftier top and the 23.90 monthly pivot would be hard pressed to survive that, threatening further losses into the low 22’s. Must hold 24.23 then to have a chance to reflex over the mid band (25.25).
NY COFFEE 2ND CONTINUATION
The wheels came off Coffee this week as two H&S patterns resolved, the big one encompassing all of ’23 threatening a return to the gloomy depths of the low 140’s, if indeed not a gouge on down to the 122 area. A tough landscape to recover from and only grappling back over both top necklines (176/177.5) would make a real impact to regain stability.
B-BERG / US DOLLAR RATIO
With the Crudes both floundering shy of key escape hatches ($78’s Brent and $74’s WTI) and the Dollar reacting back up from the low 102’s base rim, the Ratio has flinched just below the broad downtrend of the past year (1.04). If this stumble could be righted by the mid band (0.98) while the B-Berg held its low 101’s base rim and the Dollar was stumped at 103.4, there could be a second wind to the Ratio upswing so don’t forget about that overhead trend yet. Alas though, if the B-Berg carved back under 101 and the Ratio broke decisively below 0.98, the prior late May delve would no longer look like just a false breakdown and a deeper leg to 0.84 would threaten.
Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy but no guarantee is offered by Technical Commentary or Mike Ellis against errors or omissions and no liability will be accepted for any trading undertaken based on the analysis or suggestions provided herein. This information is intended solely for the personal and confidential use of the reader and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the written consent of Mike Ellis as principal of TechCom. Copyright © 2023 Technical Commentary.
