Insight Focus
- Thailand should crush over 90m tonnes of cane in 2021/22.
- Agricultural yields were boosted by heavy rains and should rise further in 2022/23.
- Thailand could crush an impressive 105m tonnes of cane next season, up 36% from 2019/20.
Thai Cane Production Rises on Wet Weather in 2021/22
Thailand’s 2021/22 cane crush started on the 7th December and should finish in early April. The industry says cane production is higher than expected as agricultural yields have climbed substantially on the back of heavy rains seen since late 2021.
Thailand should crush 93.7m tonnes of cane this year so long as heavy rains don’t lead to waterlogged fields and limit access around the time of harvest. This would delay crushing and/or prompt early mill closures.
The Picture Looks Even More Positive for 2022/23
The same rains should help the development of the 2022/23 crop; we currently think Thailand will crush 105m tonnes next season.
Thailand’s mills are offering farmers 1,000 THB/tonne (29.77 USD/tonne) for their cane in 2022/23, meaning it’ll pay more than cassava. Flooding and disease have hindered cassava development this season, and this is being reflected in the crop returns.
The current white premiums for 2023 are at an attractive level for Thailand’s white sugar producers, between 80 and 90 USD/tonne.
We’ve therefore increased our re-melt forecast to 3.5m tonnes for 2022/23, up 500k tonnes from our last estimate and a four-year high.
This leaves raw sugar export availability at 4m tonnes, unchanged from 2021/22.
