- Thailand is in for another dry year following its disastrous 2019 cane crop.
- This means cane yields won’t improve by much this year.
- Thai sugar production will fall once again, to 7.5m tonnes; half of what it was two seasons prior.
Dry Weather Persists in 2020
- It’s another dry year for Thailand.
- Rainfall is below average, and the cane area is suffering as a result.
- This is concerning, as last year’s drought seriously affected Thailand’s cane yields.
- Things won’t be much better this year unless there is a significant increase in rainfall.
- Without an increase, Thailand’s cane production and subsequent sugar availability will reduce.
How Are the Crops Right Now?
- We recently visited cane fields in Central, North-Western (Kanchanaburi) and North-Eastern (Saraburi) Thailand.
Kanchanaburi
- Kanchanaburi’s 2020/21 cane crop looked healthy and was performing well.
- Farmers had spent time preparing for the dry weather and improved their irrigation.
- Most cane fields in this region now have access to a natural water supply and irrigation systems.
- This means the yields are less dependent on rainfall.
- We therefore expect cane yields to increase there this year.
Saraburi
- Saraburi’s cane crop had suffered from a prolonged period of drought and was underperforming.
- This is particularly problematic for the region as it has limited access to the type of irrigation systems seen in Kanchanaburi.
- We think Saraburi’s cane yield will be its lowest for a decade.
Could a Different Cane Variety Save the 2020 Crop?
- In an effort to improve yields, some farmers have changed their cane variety and are now planting Khon Kaen 3.
- This is more resilient to drought and should perform better in such conditions.
- This will hopefully help support the Thai crop yields to some extent.
