Opinions Focus
- Several provinces in North and Northeast remain flooded.
- Total rainfall in Thailand will be 10% higher than average by the end of 2022.
- Cane and cassava will be affected by the heavy rainfall.
Heavy Rains from Typhoon Noru
Thai rainfall has been abnormally high all year. But the wet weather has extended longer than usual this year.
On September 28, 2022, Typhoon Noru hit Thailand, firstly in the province of Ubon Ratchathani before weakening to a depression in Chaiyaphum province, which was impacted most due to water overflow from the reservoirs, leaving the municipality under water.
Since then, it’s remained unseasonably wet and several provinces in the North and Northeast remain flooded, including cane and cassava areas.
By the end of 2022, we think total Thai could be 10% above average.
We normally assume that heavy rainfall is good for sugar cane development, and therefore sugar production. However, the wet weather is now having an adverse effect in Thailand. In some areas the longstanding floodwaters have stunted cane growth and led to root germination. This will adversely affect agricultural yields.
Worse, farmers are telling us that they are worried about field access. Harvesting machines might compact the soil given the wet weather, and so the cane crush might start later than planned.
The problems aren’t only focussed on cane growth. The flooding has damaged around 10% of Thai cassava area. We think that Thai cassava production won’t exceed last year’s outcome.
