Insight Focus
- Early India urea tender announced.
- May book as much as 1.5m tonnes.
- Supply tight with China holding back from exports.
The global urea market is on fire. This on the back of an early and surprising India tender announcement closing on August 9th with shipment before September 26th. It is expected that India may look for as much as up to 1.5 million MT. In addition, there is tight supply of urea with China holding back from exports and production issues in SE Asia at Petronas and Pupuk Indonesia focusing on the domestic market.
As a result of this Middle East urea is now firmly above USD 400 PMT FOB with paper traded as high as USD 428 PMT FOB for August.
Egyptian urea prices have shot up considerably from the RCF India tender on June 12th which saw CFR prices of USD 279.70-284.90 PMt cfr India. This week Egypt sold a small cargo destined for Europe at USD 467 PMT FOB.
It is expected that prices of urea will remain firm and increase more in the next few weeks.
Processed phosphate prices have also increased due to higher nitrogen prices which makes production costs higher. Brazil MAP price is now assessed at between USD 465-475 PMT CFR with offers circulating at USD 480 PMT CFR.
OCP of Morocco and Chinese suppliers of processed goods hold the key as to the future direction of prices.
The long awaited Bangladesh tender was completed this week and although no confirmation has been announced on prices it is rumored that 120,000 MT of DAP was offered at USD 514-515 PMT CFR with 18,000 MT of MAP at USD 600-616 PMT CFR and 60,000 MT of TSP at USD 485 PMT CFR. However, again, foreign exchange challenges in Bangladesh may see the tender again being cancelled.
The potash market saw Brazil prices increase to USD 345 PMT CFR on the back of strong Safrinah demand and the flow on effect of the strike at the port of Vancouver making Canadian potash unavailable.
The Brazil 52 week high was at USD 925 CFR whilst the low was at USD 325 PMT CFR.
The Far East market is unchanged from last week where prices are reflecting the contract price in China at USD 307 PMT CFR.
All eyes were on the settlement ammonia price between Mosaic and Yara this week for August delivery and the price went up by USD 10 PMT to reach USD 295 CFR.
The Tampa ammonia price has been exceptionally volatile over the past 3 years with a low price of USD 205 PMT CFR in July 2020, then at USD 1,625 PMT CFR in March of 2022 then at USD 1,175 CFR in October of 2022.
The Middle East price went up USD 25 PMT FOB this week to a range between USD 280-320 PMT CFR subject destination.
The Far East market has been quiet with only contract volume changing hands.
