- Monsoon rainfall is still above average in India’s key sugarcane states.
- This means Maharashtra’s reservoirs are at their fullest for seven years.
- India remains on track to produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar next season, just 500k tonnes shy of the 2018/19 record.
The Monsoon is Still Progressing Well
- The monsoon rainfall has been great across India so far.
- Bountiful rains have shrouded Maharashtra and Karnataka, enabling them to produce 15m tonnes of sugar this coming season.
- Tamil Nadu’s rainfall has been 48% above average; they alone should produce 780k tonnes of sugar.
- The monsoon rainfall has been average in Uttar Pradesh, but this is fine as perennial rivers supply cane fields with irrigation all year round, making the monsoon rainfalls less crucial for cane growth.
India’s Reservoir Levels
- Maharashtra’s reservoir levels are still at their highest level for seven years.
- This is favourable for agricultural and sucrose yields.
- Karnataka’s reservoir levels are lower, but higher-than-normal rainfall should allow them to catch up as the monsoon progresses.
Where Does This Leave Sugar Production in 2020/21?
- Weather conditions and water availability have been perfect for cane growth so far in 2020.
- We therefore think India will produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar in 2020/21.
- This is a 6m tonne increase year-on-year (YoY) and just 500k tonnes shy of the record.
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