- India’s monsoon rainfall continues at a strong pace, favouring cane development.
- The reservoirs in the key sugar production areas remain at their highest level for seven years.
- India is on track to produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar next season but remains 500k tonnes shy of the 2018/19 record.
The Monsoon Continues at a Good Pace
- The monsoon rainfall has been as expected across most of India so far.
- Tamil Nadu’s rainfall, however, has been above average.
India’s Reservoir Levels
- Reservoir levels in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra are still at their highest level in seven years.
- This is favourable for both agricultural and sucrose yields.
- Karnataka’s reservoir levels are lower, but higher-than-normal rainfall there should allow them to catch up as the monsoon progresses.
Where Does This Leave Sugar Production in 2020/21?
- Weather conditions and water availability have been optimal for cane growth so far in 2020.
- We therefore think India will produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar in 2020/21.
- This is a 6m tonne increase year-on-year (YoY) and just 500k tonnes shy of the record.
Other Opinions You May Be Interested In…
- India Needs Another Large Subsidy to Export Sugar in 2020/21
- The Long Read: China to Import Record Sugar Volumes in 2020
- July 2020 Sugar Statshot: Worries Grow for 2020/21 Crops
Comments? Questions? We’d love to hear from you! Please email us at analysis@czarnikow.com.
