• CS Brazil will be the world’s largest raw sugar supplier in 2020/21 (surprise, surprise).
  • India should be the second largest, with record raws exports on the cards.
  • The picture is less positive for Australia, as both flooding and drought have caused problems for its cane.
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CS Brazil: Record Raws Exports

  • Since the early 2000s, CS Brazil has regularly been the world’s largest raw sugar supplier.
  • It exported over 25.8m tonnes of raw sugar in 2020/21, which is almost 10m tonnes more than the previous season and its strongest season on record.
  • Its raws availability was particularly strong as it diverted more cane towards sugar production, rather than towards ethanol.
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India: A Record Here As Well?

  • India could export a record 3.8m tonnes of raw sugar this season.
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  • This is up 1.3m tonnes year-on-year and comes as strong freight prices mean India’s been able to compete with Brazil into the Far East.
  • Thailand’s decade-low raw sugar availability means Indonesia has had to look elsewhere for its supply as well.
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Australia: Poor Weather Hits Availability

  • Australia should export 3.2m tonnes of sugar in 2020/21, down 100k tonnes year-on-year.
  • This comes as Queensland, Australia’s main cane region, suffered drought during planting and flooding during its harvest/crush.
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Thailand: Weakest Raws Supply in 16 Years

  • Thailand should export 1.42m tonnes of raw sugar in 2021, down 5.8m tonnes from 2019.
  • This is because many Thai farmers planted cassava in search of greater returns and protection against drought: cassava is much more resistant to dry weather than cane.
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Mexico: Ticking Along as Normal

  • We think Mexico will export just shy of 1m tonnes of sugar in 2020/21.
  • It often exports to the USA via the new NAFTA trade agreement, with any surplus going onto the world market.
  • The world market volume therefore varies according to how the Mexican and US cane and beet crops perform.
  • So far this season, Mexico has exported around 200k tonnes to the world market.
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