Opinion Focus

  • About 40% of outdoor turkeys raised for the holiday have been wiped out by the UK’s worst avian flu epidemic ever
  • Frozen birds may be the way forward – but prices are rising.
  • Do we need to start considering alternatives for Christmas dinner?

For centuries, turkey has been the staple Christmas meal in the UK, later expanding into North America and Oceania. But with the bird population facing its very own flu pandemic this year, there is a risk that the traditional dish may be off the menu for some.

Europe Battles H5N1 Outbreak

The same H5N1 strain of avian flu is sweeping across Europe. The most recent outbreak is the largest ever observed in Europe, according to the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). So far, 47.7 million birds have been culled after about 2,500 reported outbreaks.

The flu has impacted 37 countries across the continent, from as far north as Norway’s Svalbard Islands to South Portugal, and from Ukraine in the east to the UK in the west.

However, the majority of birds impacted by the influenza are wild birds. Fewer than 2 million poultry were affected between June and September 2022, according to EFSA.

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Source: European Food Safety Authority  

But as a result of the culling, poultry prices in the EU have more than doubled since the beginning of the year. The price of EU chicken breast is now at around EUR 1,520 for 100kg compared with just under EUR 500 in January.

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Source: European Commission Agridata 

With higher prices that need to be paid, poultry may be off the menu for some this Christmas.

Avian Flu Makes Way Across the Atlantic

Not only this, but for this first time, H5N1 has made it across the Atlantic and has prompted farmers to cull over 50 million birds.

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Source: Centers for Disease Control

While not all of the culls are of birds bred for meat, only 4,200 wild birds have been identified as a threat. But the vast majority of the affected birds are from the egg laying flock.

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Source: Centers for Disease Control

Biggest Poultry Producers

Despite the fact that the US is the world’s biggest poultry producer, global production is reasonably fragmented across several countries. This is positive amid an epidemic since concentration of the flock would increase the risk of widespread contamination.

Without stock from the EU and US, Brazil is the next biggest poultry producer, having produced over 14 million tonnes in 2019.

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Source: FAOSTAT

The USDA expects Brazil to continue to be a major chicken meat exporter, with export quantity for 2023 estimated at 5 million tonnes.

That being said, Germany and the Netherlands are typically the largest poultry exporters.

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Source: UN Comtrade

Concluding Thoughts

  • Globally, there is plenty of poultry supply available for the winter.
  • However, the effectiveness of containment measures may need to be examined.
  • This is the first time the flu has crossed the Atlantic, which is a sign that the spread could easily get out of hand.
  • Food standards may hamper the ability to import for certain countries.
  • The export market could face distortions if supply is removed, pushing up prices.

Sara Warden

Sara joined CZ in 2021 as a commodity journalist after a brief period covering commodities and leveraged finance at several London-based new outlets. In the four years prior, Sara lived in Mexico City, where she worked as a bilingual journalist and editor across several key industries, including mining, oil and gas, and health. Since joining CZ, she has led the creation of general interest content that uses data to present key trends, with a focus on attracting a new, broader audience base. She graduated from the University of Strathclyde in 2014 with joint honours in Journalism and Spanish and is currently studying a Master’s in Food Policy.

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