Insight Focus
Typhoon Yagi, the second most powerful tropical cyclone of 2024, has significantly impacted China’s sugar industry, with an estimated loss of 1.9m tonnes of sugarcane in Guangxi and potential strain on beet production in Inner Mongolia.
Typhoon Yagi, Asia’s strongest storm this year and the world’s second-most powerful tropical cyclone of 2024, made landfall last Friday, sweeping across northern Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and southern China.
With winds reaching 234 km/h (145 mph), it triggered widespread power outages and ranks as the most severe storm in the Pacific this year, surpassed only by Category 5 Atlantic Hurricane Beryl. Key regions experienced heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flooding, which severely disrupted crop yields and harvest operations, destroying millions of acres of crops.
Our initial estimate for China’s sugar production was 11m tonnes, with sugarcane accounting for 86% of the total (up by 680,000 tonnes) and beet sugar accounting for 14% (up by 360,000 tonnes). However, given the recent storm, we are preparing to revise these estimates downward once we have a clearer picture of the extent of the damage.
China’s sugarcane production is concentrated in the southern regions, particularly in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong provinces. Among these, Guangxi is the largest producer, accounting for 60 percent of the country’s total sugar production.
For the 2024/25 season, we anticipate that Guangxi will harvest 52.8m tonnes of cane, which is expected to yield about 6.6m tonnes of sugar—up 400,000 tonnes from the previous season.
This was before Typhoon Yagi arrived, causing significant damage to sugarcane fields.
According to local agency Hi-Sugar, approximately 1.9m tonnes of sugarcane have been lost due to yield decline and lower sucrose content in lodged canes, which may not be recoverable if not righted quickly.
Yunnan has also been affected, with the first mills scheduled to begin crushing in late October, 7–10 days earlier than last season. Still, typhoon damage could delay this if recovery efforts take longer than expected.
Impact on Sugar Beet
China’s beet sugar production, concentrated in the northern regions of Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, accounts for 14% of the country’s total sugar output.
Beet slicing in Inner Mongolia began on September 12th, five days earlier than last year, in an effort to mitigate potential disruptions later in the season. However, heavy rainfall is posing a significant challenge, with the risk of waterlogging in low-lying fields in northeastern regions potentially worsening the situation.
We will continue to monitor the situation and adjust our production outlook as the full impact of Typhoon Yagi on both cane and beet production becomes clearer. For now, we are cautiously estimating sugar production to be around 10.7m tonnes for the 2024/25 season.
