Insight Focus
- American beet harvesting is proceeding faster than last year’s.
- Beet sugar production should be normal this season.
- As a result, there is no need for a further increase in Mexican sugar flows to the USA.
The US experienced beet planting delays due to increased precipitation earlier this year. Three of the four largest beet producing states experienced significant delays in planting compared to the five-year average. As a result, we were concerned about the impact of delayed planting on yields leading to a significant decrease in sugar production. However, our concerns have faded as beet harvesting is going according to schedule and weather during the growing season has been favourable. As a result, there will be no need to increase sugar flows coming from Mexico meaning that American imports should remain at similar levels to last year.
Beet Harvesting above the 5-year Average
In May, three of the four largest beet producing regions experienced significant planting delays due to increased rains and low temperatures that kept the ground wet and cold. Farmers were worried that beet would not have enough time to grow to have the best yields before the fall frosts.
However, the beet harvest by October is above last year’s and the five-year average. As a result, our concerns on sugar production at the beginning of the year have faded as the harvesting period is nearly done.
Additionally, beet producers have reported favourable weather during the harvest season and low insect and disease pressure.
What Does this mean for Sugar Production?
We expect total sugar production from beet for the 2022/23 to be around last season’s figure at 4.6m tonnes.
This means there will be no need for a further increase on Mexican imports like we expected in May. In July, the USDA’s forecast of Mexican sugar imports was around 1.6 m tonnes. This forecast has now decreased to almost 1.5 million tonnes as beet sugar production and yields are better than expected.
Mexican sugar flows into the US are expected to continue to increase year-on-year to boost US sugar supplies. In July, the USDA was planning for a 13.5% ending stock-to-use ratio which fell short as Mexico was not expecting to have enough sugar to meet this. However, Mexico is having a good cane crop, which will ensure adequate supply. As a result, there will be a strong inflow of Mexican imports into the US but not as high as initially expected due to a solid beet crop in the US.
