Insight Focus
- US beet sucrose yields could hit a five-year low following heavy rain post harvest.
- There’s talk of at least a 150k tonne deficit in expected production.
- The USDA may increase Mexico’s import quota, but any shipments wouldn’t arrive for several months.
Heavy Rains Weaken US Beet Yields
- Beet sucrose yields could drop to 14.12% in the US, a five-year low.
- Heavy rains have diluted the sucrose content for beet harvested towards the end of the crop.
- Harvested beet is stored outside before it’s processed (sliced), leaving it exposed to wet weather.
- If yields do drop, the US should produce 4.71m tonnes of sugar this season, down 150-200k tonnes from our current estimate.
Expect the USDA to Announce Imports
- We think the USDA will expand sugar import quotas if yields are indeed low.
- These imports would likely come from Mexico as they hold first refusal for additional demand.
- Most of this would enter as raw sugar to be refined, with a small amount entering as refined.
- This sugar would slowly be added to the existing shipments, leaving the US market tight for several months.
- Mexico should have an additional 500k tonnes to export if US beet production remains low, though.
Other Insights That May Be of Interest…
Will Mexico Become a Regular World Market Sugar Exporter?
Explainers That May Be of Interest…
