- The US could have its largest-ever crop next season, totalling 8.45m metric tonnes.
- This means Mexico’s import quota could reduce to 888k short tons (807k metric tonnes).
- This would be Mexico’s smallest export flow to the USA since the 2009/10 season.
The September WASDE Release
- In 2019, frost impacted cane and beet development and meant that US sugar production was very poor this year.
- However, the weather has been mostly good for both crops so far this season meaning the USDA expects a 1.3m short ton rebound.
- Nevertheless, record sugar production was also forecasted this time last season.
- We will therefore closely monitor the beet harvest and any potential hazards.
- You can track domestic production and harvesting yourself in the Production – Harvest Speed section of this Interactive Dashboard.
What Does This Mean for Mexico’s Quota?
- A larger domestic crop reduces the US’ need for imports.
- With this, the Mexican import quota will reduce.
- The USDA can regulate Mexico’s access to ensure stocks remain at the desired 13.5% stock-to-use ratio.
- This means Mexico will go from having a quota it’s unable to fill, to having the smallest one it’s had for a decade.
- Mexico’s crop should bounce back this season, meaning the reduced quota could put further pressure on the domestic market and world market exports.
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