- We think the world will make 3m tonnes more sugar than it consumes in 2021/22.
- However, this will only materialise if we see good crops from the four main producers: Brazil, India, Thailand and the EU.
- As it stands, there are significant questions surrounding most of these crops.
- CS Brazil should produce 36m tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, down 2.4m tonnes year-on-year, following a prolonged period of below average rainfall.
- India’s increased ethanol targets could reduce its overall sugar production.
- Beet crops in the Germany and Poland could face trouble from Beet Yellows Virus again as they remain under the neonicotinoid ban.
- Further uncertainty will likely persist for a while as COVID-19 continues to impact logistics and market sentiment.
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