Insight Focus
Wheat is a versatile grain used in food and livestock feed. It is grown worldwide in “hard” and “soft” varieties. China leads in production and consumption, while Russia is the top exporter. Global wheat trade is crucial for food security.
Wheat is an extraordinary grain with a fascinating variety of uses. Grown over a wider area and greater acreage than any other grain it is resilient and essential to diets across the globe.
It is fed to livestock as feed wheat but also used in the baking of the most delicate and delicious cakes, biscuits and breads.
It can be planted in the autumn or winter, with some of the best high-quality wheats being sown in the spring. There are ‘hard’ wheats and ‘soft’ wheats, each providing individual characteristics for their specific end uses.
China produces the most, consumes the largest amount, imports the greatest volumes and has significantly higher year-end stocks than any other country. Russia holds the mantle for the biggest exporter, which raised worldwide concerns when President Putin ordered the invasion of their neighbour and the world’s fourth largest exporter Ukraine in February 2022.
The Simple Facts
Wheat origins date as far back as 10,000 years ago. It is grown on nearly 580 million acres across six of our seven continents. (1 acre is equivalent to one football pitch).
In the 2024/25 marketing year world production is estimated at a huge 793.24 million tonnes with global year end stocks at 258.82 million tonnes, which in turn is a near ten-year low.
Source: USDA
Wheat is referred to as either ‘Winter’ or ‘Spring’ wheat. It is also defined as either ‘Hard’ or ‘Soft’.
Winter wheat is planted in the autumn months, so it can be well established prior to the harsher winter weather. It can happily survive under snow to then continue growing once the warmer spring arrives, with harvest in the summer months.
Spring wheat is often produced where sufficient growth cannot easily be achieved prior to early, harsh winters. Farmers will sow their wheat into the warmer soils of spring, with rapid growth for harvest in the late summer.
Hard & Soft wheat varieties are as suggested defined by their ‘resistance to the physical forces of compression’. The highest quality wheats are generally hard, of greater value and suitable for the best artisan breads. Soft wheats generally have lower protein and gluten content, making them more suitable for cakes, pastries and the like. When milled, hard wheat produces a coarser flour than soft wheat, meaning that soft wheat flour does not sieve as easily, due to agglomeration.
Winter varieties are either hard or soft, while springs are generally hard and of higher quality specification and thus value than their winter counterparts.
Livestock are far less fussy than us humans and thus the lowest value feed wheat for their rations can be hard or soft, winter or spring.
Global Wheat Trade
China is the most significant country in terms of production, consumption, imports and stocks. Due to its desire for food security, the country holds over 50% of the world’s year end stocks.
Russia is the largest exporter, mainly from its ports leading out through the Black Sea. The North Africans are the biggest importers by region, with Southeast Asia, where there is no real wheat cultivation, a close second.
The below table and chart provide an overview of countries and regions of significance to the wheat trade.
Source: WASDE
Source: WASDE
Conclusions
Many people think of wheat as a simple plant growing in the field. However, wheat is not just wheat, it has many guises in terms of varieties, types and ultimate uses.
Traded physically and shipped across the globe, there are a number of futures markets used to hedge and manage price transparency and risk. These cover many of the major geographical types and qualities bought and sold.
As populations over the entire surface of our planet rely on wheat as a staple in their diets, news headlines are ever-present, there is never a dull moment in the world of wheat!
