Opinion Focus
This season, we saw a disruption of Guatemalan sugar into the world market. Guatemalan sugar exports went to the US and to Mexico. However, this upcoming season, we expect Mexico’s production to recover, which will lead to higher availability of exports from Guatemala and other Centrals into the world market.
Guatemalan Sugar Production Recovers
Guatemala’s sugar production dropped by 5% in the 2023/24 season due to adverse weather and poor yields. However, this upcoming season, overall production is set to recover to around 2.7 million tonnes.
Guatemala produces more sugar than it consumes, which means that it exports over 50% of total production. Despite sugar production decreasing this year, exports increased compared to the previous season. With an increase in production, we can expect that exports will also increase for the upcoming season.
During the 2023/24 season, most sugar exports went to Mexico and the US, which left less availability for world market exports.
Mexican Production, US Exports Recover
This upcoming season, we expect Mexican sugar production to recover to 5 million tonnes, which will decrease overall imports.
The US should also have a good crop this upcoming season. With higher production from both the US and Mexico, there should be no need for another TRQ reallocation, and we should see a decrease in paid duty sugar entering the US.
Will Guatemala Export More Sugar?
Fewer imports going into Mexico and the US leaves more volumes for Guatemala to export to the world market. We expect to see around 50,000 tonnes of additional availability to the world market from Guatemala.
We should also see higher availability to the world market from other countries in Central America since Mexico will also import less from these destinations.
