- The futures range has been narrowng in recent months (see chart below).
- A breakout either way from this trend will provide momentum for the world market.
- With the worlds surplus concentrated and currently stored in India the direction of the market greatly depends on Indian exports.
- Indian production has started very strongly and stocks are building, on top of this farmers are not being paid for their cane.
- If the government enhances export incentives ahead of May’s election the market could trade significantly lower.
- If this doesn’t occur then the sugar market is much more balanced in the short and medium term.