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  • 三月食糖产销数据已公布,预估19/20榨季最终产量约为1010万吨,比此前预估值减少10万吨,同比减少66万吨。
  • 广西三月销售数据位于历史低位,预估为疫情影响下消费下调的滞后反应。
  • 三月底工业库存预估与去年持平,四月需关注糖厂销售能否改善,以及加工厂的销售意愿。

市场要闻   

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国内白糖期现货行情  

  • 原糖11月合约上周五结算价为10.31美分,周环比下跌7.1%
  • 郑糖主力合约上周五结算价为5289/吨,周环比下跌3.22%
  • 南华广西一级糖平均报价为5605/吨,周环比下跌44/吨,现货升水上涨至317/吨。
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19/20榨季截至三月底产销情况  

  • 截至331日广西、广东和海南均已收榨,剩余云南38家糖厂仍在生产,预估云南云南剩余剩余产糖量约30万吨,全国最终产量预估1010万吨,同比减少约66万吨。
  • 全国3月销量预估为75.23万吨,同比减少50%,虽然去年3月的高销量是因为增值税下调使得需求提前,但今年3月的销量仍然位于过去十年除15/16榨季外的最低位。
  • 我们认为三月销量不佳是消费下调的滞后性影响,四月销量可能仍有压力。  
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Rosa Li

Rosa graduated from Jinan University in 2012 with a bachelor’s degree in Marketing. Rosa joined CZ in 2014 and has been an analyst for 7 years in our Guangzhou office managing the data capture, analysis and visualisation within the Chinese sugar markets utilising her skills in SQL, Python and VBA while also providing content for our platform CZ App. Rosa is also responsible for the localization of CZ App in China – CZ App WeChat, she also assists with the commercial marketing in China and works towards strategy with the trading team.

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